Jeff Burgar

They say in poker, “position” is the single most important element in the game.

Now of course, there are many, many important elements. These range from the strength of your cards, to how big is your chip stack compared to other players, to your skill level at reading other players, and playing your cards. These all come together. Serious players in the game regularly say, “In the long run, cards are the same for everybody. But take a poor player with good position, and he or she can beat a better player consistently.”

So what exactly is “position,” for those who don’t know poker? It’s simple enough. In most poker games, the dealer role rotates around the table. “Best” position is defined as being the last person to act. As you go backwards around the table according to who acts next last, you end up at the first person to act. This is considered the “worst” position. So, as the deal rotates, everybody gets a turn at the “worst” position. As the deal changes after each hand, position improves, until eventually a player has the “best” position. And in the next immediate hand, is back at “worst.”

There is an additional thought. General advice in poker is, if you have a choice, try to figure out the best players in the game, and take a seat on their left. The whole idea about position is, you get to see what the player in front of you is going to do. That’s a little bit of information about a hand you can use to your advantage. You get to see what the other guy or gal does first before you have to make your own decision.

In politics, this is both good and bad. Generally speaking, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley already knows what her main opponent, the United Conservative Party, is going to do in the next election, slated for spring of 2019. Whatever she spends, the UCP will say it is too much, and will promise to not spend as much. Whatever she slashes, the UCP will say it is not enough, and will promise to cut spending even more.

One would think that, because of budgets, Notley’s NDP have to act first. So, they are out of “position,” and are at a disadvantage.

But as said, because the party lines are relatively clear, what the opponents will do is also relatively clear. At least, as far as spending and budget cuts and money goes. The UCP and other parties are hoping “position” will win the game, so they wait to see what Notley will come up with.

The challenge for Notley and her strategy people is to decide where to draw the battle lines. Then hope those lines are in a “sweet spot” which the UCP will not want to be on one side or the other.

If the NDP says, “We cut here,” if the UCP wants to cut even more, they risk being called heartless bas*ards. If the UCP, or any other party, wants to stop the cuts, they risk being attacked as spendthrift drunken sailors.

Maybe they haven’t noticed, but Notley is already campaigning hard, taking over ground they thought was automatically theirs. Pipelines and oil development anybody?

Sometimes, even in poker, acting first and acting strong, even if out of position, wins the day.