Meet your favourite weather forecaster – better than Bill Murray! photo from Sault Ste Marie News

Winter is over!

Or to say more accurately, “winter is almost over” or something like that.

That’s the news according our local crew of groundhogs, the February 2 spokesanimals for Mother Nature on the day better known as Groundhog Day.

As the sky lightened the morning of February 2, this year of 2025, the air was filled with fog in many locations. The temperatures from Peace River to Slave Lake were a brisk -28C. Skies, despite forecasts from Environment Canada of sunny and partly cloudy, were in fact completely overcast.

If that had been the case, we would likely have had a mixed bag of forecasts across northern Alberta. This of course, is the case when our furry friends come out of their burrows and see their shadows. This year, complete overcast. Which means the prediction when shadows happen of “six more weeks of winter” are coming will not be the case this year.

To be accurate, our crew or pack of forecasters is not such. It is properly called a “coterie” of groundhogs.

The story is handed down over many, many years.

There are myths, legends and traditions. Groundhog Day started in some radio station or newspaper office. Or perhaps in a coffee shop or watering hole by some fun-loving citizens. All of whom probably were looking for something to perk themselves up, as well as their fellow citizens who supposedly are cabin-fevered to death by long nights and short days.

If fact, the legends are not far off, at least as far as North America is concerned.

According to Wikipedia, the whole idea comes from German speaking areas in the new world. They have an old-world tradition that groundhogs, woodchucks and badgers, if they see their shadows, will scurry back inside their burrows.

They won’t come out again until spring comes, which is supposed to be six weeks later. This tradition from the old country was brought to life by the then 19-year old city editor of the newspaper Punxsutawney Spirit in Pennsylvania. It started in 1886. In 1887 it was made official and handled by the local Elks’ Lodge.

Since then, it has spread around both Canada and the United States.

In our neck of the woods, or perhaps better to say, in our local pile of snowdrifts and snow packs, there are a variety of furballs all making predictions.

Triangle Tommy, Kinuso Kenny, Faust Freddie, Enilda Eddie, joined by Grouard Gary, Driftpile Denise, East Prairie Pauline, Trout Lake Tony, Wabasca Willie (No relation to Wiarton Willy in Ontario) Sucker Creek Samantha, Peavine Paul, Slave Lake Larry, Red Earth Richard, Widewater Willy, Falher Freddy, Donnelly Donald, McLennan Mikey, Girouxville Gerry, Nampa Noreen and last but not least, Peace River Patty, Valleyview Virginia and High Prairie Harry.

Here be some of the cousins, from Valleyview to Peace River to Slave Lake

According to tradition, the original in America, Punxsutawney Phil, is summoned from his burrow by all the assembled dignitaries. The late Phil bit the ear of the mayor as he whispered in the mayor’s ear, one year. This after being called out of bed at 7:25 A.M. Phil’s replacement carries on the tradition.

The timing might be good news for us in Northern Alberta. Although our skies were overcast at that time of day, around 11:00 A.M. they began clearing. By noon, the sun was still struggling to break through.

But, with no sun in the wee hours, our local rodents didn’t see any shadows. Prediction: It’s going to be an early spring.

Although nowhere near as much fun, a quick check with the professionals at Environment Canada “sort of” confirms this. Depending how the probability maps cranked out at their office, we have a 30-40 per cent chance of below normal temperatures for the months of February, March and April. There are also 20 to 30 per cent chances for both near normal and above normal temperatures for those months.

In other words, the chances of warmer weather are slightly edging out the chances of cold winter. It may not be umbrella drink and t-shirt weather, but after this spell of -30 weather in early and mid-February. It will be just fine.

For your further education, here is what Wikipedia says about Groundhog Day in general:

“In Midwest America, Sun Prairie, Wisconsin, is the self-proclaimed “Groundhog Capital of the World”.^[26] This title taken in response to The Punxsutawney Spirit 1952 newspaper article describing Sun Prairie as a “remote two cow village buried somewhere in the wilderness…”^[27] In 2015, Jimmy the groundhog bit the ear of Mayor Jon Freund ^[28] and the story quickly went viral worldwide. The next day a mayoral proclamation absolved Jimmy XI of any wrongdoing.^[29]

Staten Island Chuck is the official weather-forecasting woodchuck for New York City.^[30] Dunkirk Dave (a stage name for numerous groundhogs that have filled the role since 1960) is the local groundhog for Western New York, handled by Bob Will, a typewriter repairman who runs a rescue shelter for groundhogs.^[31][32]

In Raleigh, NC, an annual event at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences includes Sir Walter Wally. According to museum officials, Wally has been correct 58% of the time vs. Punxsutawney Phil’s 39%. ^[33]

In Washington, D.C., the Dupont Circle Groundhog Day event features Potomac Phil, another taxidermic specimen. From his first appearance in 2012 to 2018, Phil’s spring predictions invariably agreed with those of the more lively Punxsutawney Phil, who made his predictions half an hour earlier. In addition, Phil always predicted correctly six more months of political gridlock. However, after being accused of collusion in 2018, Potomac Phil contradicted Punxsutawney Phil in 2019 and, further, predicted two more years of political insanity.^[34]

In the American South, the General Beauregard Lee of Lilburn, Georgia (later Butts County, Georgia), is known to have the most accurate prediction, standing at 94%.^{[citation needed]} The University of Dallas in Irving, Texas has boasted of hosting the second largest Groundhog celebration in the world.^[35]

The day is observed with various ceremonies at other locations in North America beyond the United States,^[36] including Wiarton Willie of Wiarton, Ontario,^[37] and Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia which, due to Nova Scotia’s Atlantic Time Zone, makes the first Groundhog Day prediction in North America.^[38] “Daks Day” (from the German dachs) is Groundhog Day in the dialect of Lunenburg, Nova Scotia.^[1]

In French Canada, Fred la marmotte of Val-d’Espoir^[39][40] has been the representative forecaster for the province of Quebec since 2009.^[41][40] A study also shows that in Quebec, the marmot or groundhog (siffleux) are regarded as Candlemas weather-predicting beasts in some scattered spots, but the bear is the more usual animal.^[42][g] “

by Staff